The core of the European security policy that still needs to be created would have to be the German-Polish troop deployment in Ukraine. It would allay the fears not only of Warsaw, but of all post-communist countries and NATO that Berlin could return to the Schröder-Merkel-Scholz policy on Russia (the Bismarckian policy). This step would cause a geopolitical earthquake with far-reaching consequences for the EU and the West.
However, Polish disappointment with Germany is so great – even within the Tusk government – that it is easy to score points in domestic politics by declaring mistrust of Berlin. In view of this mistrust, the political camps in Poland rely almost exclusively on the US for security policy, and the populism that dominates the country dictates that the rejection of the deployment of Polish soldiers in Ukraine be loudly proclaimed.
At the moment, one could even get the impression that Berlin would send troops to Ukraine under certain circumstances, while Warsaw would never do so.
Under these conditions, almost the entire Polish political establishment is de facto banking on a protracted war in Ukraine that will bleed not only the invaded country but also Russia, permanently weakening both. It is likely that this policy could succeed, but it amounts to Ukrainians dying for peace in Europe.
At the same time, it testifies to the intellectual weakness that had already gripped Western Europe during the Cold War.
With its strategic blindness, timidity and selfishness, Poland has arrived in the West.
